An article in Hospodářské noviny summarizes Groupon’s journey from “the fastest-growing start-up in history” through crisis to its transition into the hands of Dušan Šenkypl and Pale Fire Capital.
Since the slump, Groupon’s value has risen by more than 800 percent. How did Šenkypl’s team and others manage to achieve this, and why might the stock still soar?
Hospodářské noviny, August 28, 2025, Patrik Salát, Michael Mareš
The fastest-growing start-up in history. That was once the label given to Groupon, which needed just 16 months to reach a valuation of one billion dollars. The aura of a promising company has long since faded. The crisis that the “mother of all discount portals” eventually sank into, however, gave rise to a new opportunity. Successful Czech investors from Pale Fire Capital seized it, and under their leadership the company has recently been exceeding expectations. Since its slump in 2023, the company’s stock value on the U.S. Nasdaq exchange has risen by more than 800 percent. We looked at how the company has changed and continues to change, and whether buying its shares at current levels could still be worthwhile. According to experts, they may hold interesting potential.
To begin with, it’s important to stress something that may not be entirely obvious from a Czech perspective: Groupon is a truly large company. Its valuation exceeds one billion dollars, annual revenues hover around half a billion dollars, and last year it employed over two thousand people. Groupon’s services are used by nearly 16 million active customers, mostly in the U.S., but also in markets across Europe, Asia, and Latin America.
The expectations placed on Groupon at the very beginning, however, were even greater. It was a major event in 2011 when the American internet company appeared on Wall Street, successfully mimicking Google’s 2004 IPO. Headlines on news sites reported that Groupon’s stock surged by more than 50 percent after its market debut. Beaming founder and then-CEO Andrew Mason posed proudly for photographers at the Nasdaq. His company suddenly had a valuation of $12.4 billion. Shortly before that, he had rejected Google’s offer to buy the company for $6 billion.
In the beginning, there was pizza
Groupon was born out of crisis. Because of the U.S. housing bubble, which burst in 2007 and turned into a global financial crisis, people became poorer. The wealth of American households dropped by more than ten trillion dollars in 2008 alone. In that same year, Groupon kicked off the era of discount portals when it offered a “two-for-one” pizza voucher at the local Motel Bar restaurant in Chicago. It worked—people responded to vouchers in difficult times, and Groupon grew quickly. Its business model was built on providing merchants with a platform for their discount coupons and taking a commission from their sales.
By 2015, the portal had nearly 50 million customers and more than 400,000 offers across 48 countries. Impressive numbers at first glance, but they hid a harsh truth: the company was failing to meet high expectations. The initial excitement over a fast-growing business gradually faded. Problems with low business efficiency began to surface, translating into weak profitability. While revenues initially grew significantly, so did costs, and operating margins remained low as a result. To attract new customers, Groupon had to offer steep discounts. But these did not bring merchants long-term customers. On top of that, merchants complained that the vouchers were not worthwhile and started seeking other ways to gain visibility.
Meanwhile, Groupon faced growing competition around the world. Its entry into the Chinese market in 2011 is considered one of the most notorious examples of a Western tech company’s failure. After launching its discount portal there, it suffered heavy losses due to fierce competition and soon withdrew from China altogether.
All of this was reflected in its share price. While after its IPO (initial public offering) in 2011 the stock value climbed to over $500, a year later it was trading at under $60 on the Nasdaq. The company’s valuation fell from more than $12 billion to $3 billion. Andrew Mason left his position as CEO in 2013, marking the first phase of restructuring. Since then, the story has repeated itself several times, with five different CEOs taking turns at the helm.
Be like Slevomat
Since 2023, there has also been a Czech name among Groupon’s leadership—Dušan Šenkypl first took over as interim CEO and, since last year, has been serving as permanent chief executive. This is the result of an investment move by Jan Barta and his partners from the financial group Pale Fire Capital. At first, they invested in the American company’s stock in a purely opportunistic way, but gradually they moved into a much more active role.
Once they became the largest shareholder, they began actively engaging with management and the board as what Barta at the time described as a “constructive shareholder,” adding that the basic advice was: Copy Slevomat! The Czech discount portal founded by Tomáš Čupr was originally a clone of Groupon, but later evolved in a slightly different direction—from a pure discount site into an experience-based portal. The key to its success lay primarily in combining multiple offers into “packages.”
What made Groupon attractive for Pale Fire Capital? In 2022, Barta was convinced that stagflation or a recession would hit the U.S. economy. “I realized Groupon is a company that could benefit enormously from that. You might think: ‘Aha, now people will want to save money and start buying discount vouchers.’ But the primary reason is that businesses will try to monetize their spare capacity, from restaurants to amusement parks,” he explained at the time.
The U.S. economy, however, proved more resilient than Barta had expected, while Groupon’s numbers kept getting worse. It became clear that the company was in worse shape than the Czechs had anticipated, leaving no choice but to roll up their sleeves and get to work. It was obvious that if the people from Pale Fire Capital didn’t step in and push for a top-level management transformation themselves, Groupon would go bankrupt.
As the largest shareholder, they launched a major play: over time, they put about 120 million dollars (2.5 billion Czech crowns at today’s value) into the stock, and after several waves of additional purchases and consolidating stakes—which they originally held as individuals—they now own a total of 10,181,070 shares, equal to a 25.18 percent stake.
How the S-Team Was Built
Barta and Šenkypl became members of the board, with the latter also taking on the role of CEO. He assembled a team in which a key role was played by Marie Havlíčková, the former director of Slevomat, who had overseen the Czech portal’s transformation. Around Havlíčková, they managed to bring in several top managers and together formed what they called the S-Team, short for Senior Management Team. Among them were Jiří Ponrt, Vojtěch Ryšánek, Filip Popovič, and Petr Bulka, who brought experience from Avast, Google, Alza, Slevomat, and Home Credit. For a year, the team also included Lucie Brešová, former COO of Kiwi.com, though she left in the summer of last year.
This year, other Czechs joined the top management: CTO Aleš Drábek, who previously oversaw e-commerce at Metro Cash & Carry International, and CMO Josef Buryan, who had spent five years at Meta (formerly Facebook).
In autumn 2023, Šenkypl told an audience in the lecture hall of the Prague University of Economics—mostly filled not with students but with small Czech investors—that the S-Team was halfway through Groupon’s transformation story. That turned out to be too optimistic. Progress was much slower, and obstacles kept arising along the way. Only now has the company finally entered the stage where the business is not just being saved but developed. “Now the focus is on product changes and artificial intelligence. We still have a lot to change, but that applies to every company,” Šenkypl told Hospodářské noviny.
Under his leadership, change itself became the company’s motto—something Groupon had previously been reluctant to pursue. “I want to maintain, or even raise, the bar of how fast we change, which should allow us to accelerate further,” adds Šenkypl.
Asked whether he would go through the entire effort again if he had known how hard it would be, he waves his hand dismissively. “There’s no ‘what if.’ In the same situation, I’d make the same decision. Sure, there are easier opportunities, but in terms of what we’ve learned—both us and many people around us—I don’t think there are many better ones.”
On Groupon’s board, Šenkypl and Barta met some very interesting people. For instance, Ted Leonsis, a dollar billionaire, former top executive at AOL and American Express, and longtime owner of the NHL team Washington Capitals. Also billionaire investor Robert Bass and Jason Harinstein, former director of corporate development at Google, have impressive careers behind them.
It’s also worth pointing out something else: while Czechs—and especially large investment groups like PPF or EPH—are increasingly owning or holding significant stakes in major foreign companies, it is truly exceptional for them to actually run a company listed on the U.S. stock market. The know-how that Šenkypl and his partners are gaining is extraordinary from a Czech perspective.
Šenkypl himself, however, downplays the importance of the Czech footprint, at least when it comes to personnel. “I don’t really look at nationalities—it’s about personal stories and motivation,” he says. “In general, Pale Fire Capital doesn’t focus on people who are satisfied with the status quo. Let’s be honest, such profiles are rare—which makes me all the happier when I see them working with us, and I don’t care where they come from.”
How Remote Work Works
Groupon’s headquarters are on the 25th floor of a skyscraper on West Wacker Drive in Chicago—with beautiful views of Lake Michigan, the Loop business district, and the Chicago Riverwalk. But the offices are usually not very full. Like many other American companies, Groupon struggles with employees’ reluctance to return to the office after COVID, and on top of that, the company is spread across several global locations. The same applies to the S-Team.
Of the Czech team, only Jiří Ponrt relocated to Chicago, serving first as CFO and now as COO. His compatriots, including Šenkypl, most often operate from Prague. Running the company remotely reportedly works well. “I just spent four weeks in North America, and I have to say that working from Prague is actually easier for me given the composition of the team.” He points out that the company’s operations and senior management are spread across half the globe: for example, CFO Rana Kashyap is in New York, Head of Communications Emma Coleman is in London, and Chief Commercial Officer Barbara Weisz is in Paris. For joint meetings, they regularly gather together—and have even met several times in the Czech capital.
“In general, I think remote operations are very challenging if we want people to truly be a team and work together, so we’re putting increasing emphasis on meeting in person and working together,” Šenkypl admits. “That said, I know that if we had tried to carry out the transformation in the U.S., including hiring, we wouldn’t have succeeded—the key advantage was our local reputation and network. Not just in the Czech Republic but across Europe we were able to recruit talented people. In the U.S., that’s only been working recently, as the results of the transformation have become visible and the company is now much more attractive to many candidates.”
A Stock Market Rollercoaster
Groupon’s stock has been on quite a ride. It hit rock bottom in May 2023, when one share on the U.S. market traded for less than three dollars. If someone had invested $10,000 at that point and held onto the stock until today (with the price now hovering around $27), they would have seen a return of about 800 percent—pocketing roughly $90,000.
This turnaround—at least from today’s perspective credited to the Czech leadership—brought a sense of relief among its members. “In the beginning, the atmosphere was tense—people were asking whether we’d even have jobs to come to the next morning,” recalls Marie Havlíčková. “And today? Our stock value is ten times higher. This isn’t luck. It’s the result of an incredible team, constant focus, and countless moments when we did everything necessary to stabilize the company and set it on a growth path,” she wrote last week on her LinkedIn profile, when Groupon shares were still trading well above $30.
When Havlíčková reflected on the progress so far, she made sure to add that this is not the end of the story. “It’s been a great ride, but the best is yet to come. We finally have enough energy and resources to invest in long-term projects.”
As shown during the event at the Prague University of Economics, Groupon shares are also held by many Czech retail investors. They clearly trust both the Czech managers and Barta’s investment instinct—which, for example, proved extremely successful in 2023, when Barta personally paid 1.7 billion Czech crowns in income tax. Among Groupon’s shareholders is also Lumír Kunz, one of the founders of the investment group Leverage and former head of the Aukro portal (also part of Pale Fire Capital).
“I consider Groupon’s turnaround, thanks to the excellent work of management, to be phenomenal! I remember the close cooperation with Dušan fondly and I’m rooting for the whole team. Right now, the stock price strongly reflects positive sentiment about future growth, which, if not delivered, could lead to a sharp correction. But if they manage to sustain year-on-year growth in key categories along with positive cash flow, the stock price will continue to rise in the medium term,” says Kunz.
The J&T Opportunity fund, led by one of the best-known Czech portfolio managers, Michal Semotan, also profited from Groupon’s stock. At first, he monitored the company and was impressed, among other things, by the work of the Czech management, which led him to invest. “The price dropped to around $10–15 in the fall of 2023, if I remember correctly, and that’s when we bought the first part of our position,” Semotan told Hospodářské noviny. He later increased the position several times. “We sold at an average of about $18 and were satisfied. The subsequent growth above $30 really surprised me, and it was hard to accept that I let so much profit potential slip away. But that’s part of investing,” he adds.
However, Groupon’s value has fallen over the past month. The stock price is now about 20 percent lower. According to Semotan, the price has risen above the company’s fundamental value. “Maybe the stock is now running ahead of fundamentals, but before it was the opposite—and that’s how stock markets work,” he explains. Portfolio manager Tomáš Pfeiler from Cyrrus shares a similar view: “The stock is rather overvalued, and significant volatility can be expected,” he says.
Short-Sellers’ Paradise or Hell?
One of the reasons behind Groupon’s increased market volatility is that its shares are heavily shorted—meaning that many speculators are betting on the stock’s decline. In such cases, they borrow shares from a broker and sell them, then buy them back after the price drops, pocketing the difference between the selling and repurchase price as profit.
At present, Groupon ranks among the ten most shorted stocks. According to MarketWatch, more than 45 percent of its float is shorted. In other words, nearly half of its freely tradable shares have been sold short.
For Groupon, however, this isn’t unusual. One of the world’s most closely followed technical analysts, J. C. Parets, pointed out in May that Groupon entered this year with the highest number of shares held by traders speculating on a price drop. “The short positions were held longer than desirable. Groupon surged by more than 130 percent in an epic short squeeze,” Parets concluded in his post.
A short squeeze occurs when a stock price rises sharply, forcing short-sellers to buy shares to cover their losing positions. This mass repurchasing increases demand and pushes the stock price even higher, which can result in a rapid and significant surge in valuation.
This means that if Groupon’s stock were to start climbing again, its value could spike further as more short positions are closed. For example, trader Justin Spittler from Risk Hedge compared Groupon to Carvana, another heavily shorted company (incidentally, Barta himself bet heavily on its decline). But the online used-car dealer’s stock price has since skyrocketed by thousands of percent. Groupon still has a long way to catch up.
Still, buying shares solely in anticipation of a short squeeze is not a wise decision. “Investing now because of a potential short squeeze is extremely risky,” warns Cyrrus portfolio manager Tomáš Pfeiler. “An investor could suffer significant losses.”
Shares at $60?
If we take analysts’ forecasts at face value—though they don’t always come true—another short squeeze could happen. According to Stock Analysis, the current average price target for Groupon is set at $31.25, nearly 14 percent above the current price of $27.50.
The most optimistic view comes from California-based Roth Capital Partners, which on June 20 raised its target from $33 to $47. Roth also stated that within two years investors could be willing to pay $60 per share. The firm believes Groupon will succeed in completing its turnaround, driving revenue growth and generating positive free cash flow.
This year, the company expects revenue to exceed half a billion dollars. Analysts forecast up to 11 percent annual growth in the coming years. By 2027, revenue could reach $612 million, alongside growing profitability and free cash flow—long a problem for Groupon. Last year, the company generated more than $40 million in free cash flow, and this year expectations are at least $50 million. That would mark the best result since 2018, when free cash flow was around $120 million, although revenue back then topped $2.6 billion.
Northland Capital Markets is also optimistic about Groupon. After stronger-than-expected second-quarter results, analyst Bobby Brooks in August raised his price target from $39 to $44. His forecast assumes the company can maintain its growth trajectory and benefit from rising demand for discounted products and services.
Groupon also scores highly at Zacks Investment Research, which specializes in independent equity research and is known for its mathematical Zacks Rank stock rating system that evaluates shares based on earnings potential. Zacks gives Groupon a “Strong Buy” rating, citing the improving outlook for earnings per share. EPS is expected to turn positive this year for the first time since 2021 and continue rising, reaching $1.28 per share by 2027.
By contrast, Goldman Sachs remains skeptical. In May, the bank raised its target price to $15 but still issued a “Sell” recommendation. That, however, was before the latest Q2 results, which came in better than expected.